NZ export levels remain strong as firms eye UK & Japan growth

The majority of New Zealand exporters have maintained or increased their export levels over the past year, even as concerns regarding international trade tensions and tariffs continue to rise.

According to the findings from the 2025 ExportNZ DHL Export Barometer, export activity has remained robust, with 79% of surveyed exporters reporting that they either held steady or grew export volumes in the last 12 months. The annual survey, which examines exporter sentiment and market trends, also indicated that optimism persists for the year ahead, with 59% of exporters anticipating increased export volumes in the next twelve months.

Selina Deadman, Vice President, Commercial at DHL Express New Zealand, commented on the results, stating, "It's encouraging to see that the majority of New Zealand exporters have continued to ship internationally over the past year. International trade has faced increased scrutiny due to upcoming barriers, it's a positive indication that exporters are optimistic about cross-border trade, and it will be interesting to see how these expectations evolve in 2026. This also reflects the confidence that DHL Express has in globalization and its importance in economic growth."

Despite the positive outlook, exporters remain alert to potential challenges. The United States' recent trade policies have influenced trade flows. At the time the survey was conducted, New Zealand exports to the US were subject to a baseline 10% tariff, with an anticipated removal of the 'de minimis' threshold previously scheduled for 2027. As of now, New Zealand's reciprocal tariff has increased to 15%, and the elimination of the de minimis threshold has been accelerated to August 2025, marking a more immediate challenge for exporters focused on the US market.

"This year's survey results show strongly that Kiwi businesses are considering new markets outside their traditional, with the likes of the United Kingdom (41%) and Japan (27%) both seeing an increase of 4% in exporter interest. In the case of the UK, this shift is likely influenced by the New Zealand-UK Free Trade Agreement, which came into effect in mid-2023 and is starting to deliver outcomes," said Executive Director of ExportNZ Joshua Tan.

The data identified cost and availability of transport and logistics (49%) and the general high cost of doing business in New Zealand (31%) as the main barriers to export growth. Notably, concern about a potential escalation of global trade wars rose sharply, cited by 27% of respondents, reflecting a 15% increase in concern compared to last year. Anxiety over high tariffs linked to an absence of trade agreements also grew by 7% over the same period.

Tan observed that, "Increased concern around trade wars becoming a barrier was expected, with a 15% rise from last year. Concerns over high tariffs due to a lack of trade agreements also saw a 7% increase."

The survey highlighted a division in the level of external support exporters feel they require. One quarter (25%) of exporters said they did not require assistance from New Zealand Trade and Enterprise (NZTE) in overseas markets, while 22% indicated a desire for more help. Of those seeking support, 20% were interested in research and development backing and another 20% in access to market research resources.

Exporters also identified their leading preferences for government support. The most cited were more free trade agreements with new partners (32%) and support for attending trade shows (32%), highlighting a focus on official initiatives that could open new opportunities or reduce export-related costs.

The full findings of the 2025 ExportNZ DHL Barometer Report are scheduled to be released later in August. Key findings and practical advice on reducing export costs are to be discussed by Deadman and Tan in an upcoming online webinar hosted by DHL and ExportNZ.