Ocean freight punctuality collapses as delays surge

Ocean freight delivery reliability deteriorated sharply in 2025, with on-time arrivals dropping to 13.9% and the share of shipments arriving at least three days late rising to 47.4%, according to analysis by supply chain software provider Beacon.

Beacon reviewed 27,613 ocean freight shipments across 2024 and 2025. It defined on-time delivery as arriving within 12 hours of the estimated time of arrival.

The year-on-year shift marks a steep decline from 2024, when on-time delivery stood at 36% and 18.1% of shipments arrived three or more days late. The figures point to greater uncertainty for importers and exporters that run lean inventories and tightly planned replenishment cycles.

Quarterly trend

Quarter-by-quarter results deteriorated across all periods in 2025 compared with the prior year. In the first quarter, on-time arrivals fell from 45.2% in 2024 to 12.5% in 2025. The second quarter slipped from 37.3% to 11.7%.

The third quarter dropped from 37.7% to 14.7%. The fourth quarter, which often faces peak-season congestion, declined from 30% to 16.9%.

The data also highlighted a severe stretch from February to April 2025. February recorded an on-time rate of 6.7%, while 63.9% of shipments arrived three or more days late. March logged 7.4% on-time performance, with 63.2% arriving very late. April fell to 6% on-time, with 61.4% arriving three or more days late.

Across those three months, roughly 93% of shipments failed to arrive within the 12-hour window used in the analysis. This period showed the sharpest mismatch between ETA expectations and actual delivery outcomes in the dataset.

Operational pressure

Schedule reliability has become a practical constraint for supply chain teams that depend on predictable shipping lead times. As variability increases, firms must either raise safety stock, accept stock-out risk, or adjust service promises and planning cycles. Each option carries cost implications, particularly for fast-moving consumer goods and seasonal demand patterns.

Fraser Robinson, Chief Executive and Co-Founder of Beacon, said planning assumptions based on 2024 results did not hold up in 2025.

"When supply chain leaders began planning their 2025 shipments, most were working with assumptions built on 2024 performance data. By mid-year, those assumptions had become a liability. What's clear from the data is that 2025 represented a significant departure from 2024 norms. Whether this represents a temporary disruption or a new baseline remains to be seen," Robinson said.

Possible causes

Beacon pointed to several structural factors that may have contributed to the decline, including Red Sea disruptions that forced rerouting of Asia-Europe sailings. Longer voyages added sailing days and created knock-on effects across vessel rotations and port-call schedules.

It also flagged port congestion, with delays concentrated at certain destinations. UK ports and Scandinavian terminals showed evidence of congestion in the results.

Weather patterns in early 2025 may also have played a role, Beacon said. The timing overlaps with the February-to-April trough in on-time arrival rates.

Data gap

Beacon said many organisations lack independent performance data across their shipment portfolios. Without systematic tracking, teams struggle to benchmark carriers and forwarders, challenge ETA accuracy, or identify recurring reliability issues on specific lanes.

Robinson said planning for 2026 should reflect the more recent performance baseline.

"As supply chain professionals look ahead to planning for 2026, the analysis suggests that models based on 2025 realities, rather than 2024 expectations, will provide a more resilient foundation. Visibility and real-time insights will continue to be key," he said.

Beacon positions its product as a shipment-visibility workspace that aggregates updates across multiple transport modes and carriers, and provides tools for sharing shipment status and attaching documentation to consignments.

Its platform covers more than 160 ocean carriers, 150 airlines, and 158,000 road carriers, and counts Fever-Tree, Tilda Rice, and Tata Consumer Products among its customers.